Record Sea Ice Losses at BOTH Poles: This is What it Means

We've just hit the winter solstice - the first day of winter. And that means sea ice extent in the Arctic is going through its annual period of increase, which generally reaches a maximum around February before beginning its annual melting. And we are seeing an increase. But that increase is setting a record that we wish we weren't seeing because so far it's a record low.


Last year (that is, around February of 2016) we recorded the lowest Arctic sea ice extent in history. This year so far we're seeing that record low being broken. Now it's still early in the growth season so it might recover. Or it might not. Clearly the dropping sea ice extent in the Arctic continues the trend we've been seeing for decades. The ice is melting more than usual in the summer and its not growing back as much in the winter.

[See larger here]

As bad as that is - and it is very bad indeed - we're seeing an even worse result right now in the Antarctic. Because the Antarctic is at the southern pole, the area is now going into summer. As of early December Antarctic sea ice extent was the lowest on record.

It is highly unusual to see record low sea ice extents at both poles at the same time. Of course, these early indicators could reverse as the seasons (freezing in Arctic, melting in Antarctic) continue over the next two or three months, but the overall trends are not giving us much hope for correction.

To make matters worse, the Arctic is seeing its warmest temperatures for this time of year ever. And not just a little warmer; temperatures are heating up to unbelievable levels that have climate scientists startled - at least 20 degrees Celsius warmer than normal. Temperatures have actually been above the freezing point. This is causing melting during a part of the year where the ice should be freezing.

Part of the reason in the Arctic is because this past year set a record low total ice extent for the year (a combination of the record low maximum and near-record low minimum). With warmer waters in the summer and early fall the ice growth never got a good start in the late fall and now winter. If the low ice extent maximum trend continues it creates a vicious cycle of conditions that will lead to acceleration of the downward spiral we've been witnessing for years.

Total Polar Sea Ice Extent:

The reasons for the low ice extent in Antarctica are harder to explain. It may be related to weakening of westerly winds that generally insulate the Antarctic from the effects of global warming. Or it might be related to the ozone layer. Or just dumb luck. Unlike the Arctic, the Antarctic is harder to define. One thing is clear, however, and that is that the Antarctic should be the last place we would see the effects of climate change. The fact that we are seeing them (e.g., destruction of west Antarctic ice shelf and more rapid movement of glaciers in the east Antarctic) suggests we may have reached a tipping point. The ramifications of any sudden melting of land-based Antarctic ice (along with melting of Greenland) will be dramatic, to put it mildly.

The ramifications of Arctic melting are already being experienced - great warming, more melting, national defense issues, rising sea levels (from land-based melting), dramatic changes in weather patterns and jet streams, and much more.

We'll have to watch what happens over the next few months - melting in the Antarctic and freezing in the Arctic - to see if these record lows continue. If you're not sure how to read the graphs, check out this quick primer. For the basics on how the Arctic and Antarctic are different, read here.

Climate Wars - Arctic vs Antarctic Ice Melt

Arctic sea ice is melting. This is one of the most common points made whenever climate change is discussed (in addition to the obvious point that the climate is heating up). But Antarctic sea ice is growing, so it's a wash, right?

No. No. No.

This time of year climate scientists (and the informed public) spend a lot of time tracking the annual melting of sea ice in the Arctic. Climate deniers counter by exclaiming: "but the ice is growing in Antarctica." Deniers cry that the overall global sea ice total is the most important number and that Antarctica makes up for the ice lost in the Arctic.

Again. Emphatically. No. No. No.

This idea is akin to saying that a person making a billion dollars a year and a person making minimum wage (about $15,000/year) are equitable because the average income between the two is over $500 million.

In other words, it's silly.

To begin with, over the last 40 years the Arctic has lost about 21,000 square miles of sea ice per year. During that same time the Antarctic has gained only about 7,300 square miles per year. So even if "total global sea ice" was a valid measurement (which it isn't), it would show a net loss of nearly 14,000 square miles per year. That's hardly a winning argument.

The fact is that the Arctic and Antarctic are completely different systems and not directly comparable in any way. To help people understand the difference between the two poles, let's take a look at the main processes of both. 


The most obvious difference is that the Arctic is an ocean surrounded by land and the Antarctic is continental land surrounded by ocean. This difference has a profound affect on how and when ice is formed, not to mention what happens when it melts.

Arctic

Every summer sea ice shrinks in the Arctic, and every winter it grows. To track these patterns we rely on several measurements, one of which is sea ice extent (others are ice volume and ice age). Sea ice extent is defined as an area of ocean covered by at least 15% sea ice.* Two key numbers are the maximum ice extent (the greatest ice extent of any given year, usually in February) and the minimum ice extent (the least ice extent of any given year, usually in September). Generally the melting in the summer is not complete, that is, there is still sea ice even at the minimum. This, however, could change as various feedback effects tend to increase melting (e.g,. more open water means more warming, which means faster and greater melting). It is expected that at some point we'll see an ice free Arctic for some period of time during the summer. For a variety of reasons, that's not a good thing at all.

Both the minimum and maximum indicators have been showing an overall decrease in sea ice extent in the Arctic. For example, the following chart shows ice extent for March 1979-2016. As can be seen, some years are worse than others, but the general trend is clearly loss of ice over time. The same pattern applies to every single month. Feel free to look at other examples on the National Snow & Ice Data Center website.

Because of short-term variations in weather, the year to year values vary, but the trend is clear - the Arctic is losing ice. [See here for a video explanation of trend and variation] By the way, when deniers claim "Arctic ice has recovered," they are falsely cherry picking one of those little peaks and dishonestly ignoring the clear overall trend to fabricate their entirely - and obviously - false conclusions. [This intentional deception is why we know that deniers are being dishonest, not merely ignorant]

Antarctic

While the Arctic is frozen ocean, the Antarctic is frozen land. While the sea ice in the Arctic grows out into the ocean and is constrained by the land, the sea ice in the Antarctic grows out from the land, basically surrounding the continent and expanding without much resistance as far as the cold water and winds can take it. Remember that sea ice extent is defined as "at least 15% coverage of a unit area," so it doesn't necessarily mean the entire area is covered with ice, but with that much unhindered space to grow, it can go a long way.

Scientists have a very good understanding of the processes driving ice gain and loss in the Arctic; for the Antarctic there is greater uncertainty. What we do know from measurements is that, like the Arctic, the sea ice in the Antarctic grows in the winter and shrinks in the summer. Unlike the Arctic, the sea ice shrinks almost completely away each year in the Antarctic. In recent years there has been a pattern of increasing sea ice extent in the Antarctic, the opposite pattern of what we're seeing in the Arctic. The reasons for this are still a point of discussion, but new data have helped clarify the reasons for the trend.


One important factor is that greater melting of land-based glaciers and ice sheets has put more freshwater into the ocean surrounding Antarctica. Since the water is so cold, and because the freshwater tends to float on top of the denser saltwater of the ocean, you see rapid freezing of this new surface water. Another factor is the wind. Unlike the land-constrained Arctic, the winds have virtually limitless ability to push any forming sea ice floes further out to sea, where the cold temperatures tend to fill in the spaces and increase sea ice extent. Studies have also shown greater and faster movement of Antarctic glaciers toward the coasts, which helps push more ice offshore. In addition, the west Antarctic ice shelf** has been collapsing, and will continue to do so irreversibly.

The graphic above comes from NASA's GRACE satellite. It shows that despite the annual winter increase (and annual summer loss) of sea ice in the Antarctic, the overall ice mass of the continent itself has been dropping. Ice mass on Greenland shows the same pattern, only worse.

All of this information tells us that while we may see short-term increases in the Antarctic annual sea ice extent, continued warming of the climate will inevitably result in a much rapider overall ice loss as the glaciers continue to move to the coast and the west Antarctic ice shelves disappear.

So we can see that the two poles are completely different in every aspect, which makes any adding of their ice masses meaningless. All the factors in the Arctic point to continued and rapid ice losses by every measurement (sea ice extent, ice mass, ice age, ice thickness, ice volume). The increased open water results in even faster warming and melting, with these effects getting worse as additional feedback mechanisms kick in. Antarctica is showing a very different pattern but one no less of concern. Sure, the sea ice extent is increasing, but the reasons for it all point to major long term problems in Antarctica that will eventually have global ramifications even coming from such a remote continent. Continued overall ice loss from the land will contribute, along with ice melting on Greenland, to rapid sea level rise. Some recent studies have suggested that we could reach a  threshold that would cause a catastrophic melting of the two ice sheets, thus resulting in huge increases in sea level in a matter of decades rather than centuries. That may not happen, but then again, it might.

As mentioned earlier, climate deniers like to talk about the Antarctic whenever the discussion is about the Arctic (especially given it is the winter growth period in the south while we're watching the summer melting in the north). But adding the two together to get some sort of "total sea ice" value is both meaningless and dishonest. The two areas work independently, both in how they are impacted by man-made climate change and how they contribute to it.

By no honest analysis can anyone say the trends are good.


Notes from text:

*The 15% threshold is a bit confusing because it doesn't mean the entire area is covered with ice or that any given area is exactly 15% - the area could have anywhere from 15% to 100% sea ice. Obviously, an area that is 100% packed with ice would have more ice than an area only 15% covered by ice, yet they would both be counted as being the same sea ice extent. This is why we also look at ice volume, ice age, and thickness.

** Ice shelves are floating ice still connected to the land. Sea ice is that which has broken off and is floating. Ice sheets are the massive layers of ice that cover huge areas of land - Greenland and Antarctica carry the two remaining large ice sheets. Glaciers can be thought of as mini ice sheets flowing down mountains.

More Walrus Haulouts in Alaska Due to Lack of Arctic Sea Ice

I have previously noted reports of large walrus haulouts onto land due to the lack of Arctic sea ice, and now there are additional reports.  You can read more about it in this summary here.  The original report came from this source here.

More information on radio-tracking of walrus populations can be found on the US Geological Survey Alaska Science Center page.

A short 2-page FAQ on the science behind the walrus haulouts can be seen here.

Scientists say Carbon Release to Atmosphere 10 Times Faster than in the Past

Specifically, in the the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), which was about 55.9 million years ago, and according an the international team of research geologists, is "the best analog we have for current global warming."  And that rate of carbon release "may not allow sufficient time for the biological environment to adjust."

As noted in a recent Science Daily article, there are some uncertainties with the core data during this time period because the cores contain layers of calcium carbonate, and "when large amounts of greenhouse gases -- carbon dioxide or methane -- are in the atmosphere, the oceans become more acidic, and acid dissolves calcium carbonate."  The concern is the change may appear more abrupt than it actually was because of the incomplete record.  So the fact that the PETM rate may have been perhaps slower than we think emphasizes even more the fact that the current rate of carbon release is 10 times faster.  In short, it could be more than 10 times.

"We looked at the PETM because it is thought to be the best ancient analog for future climate change caused by fossil fuel burning."

According to the researchers, "The outcome was a warming of from 9 to 16 degrees Fahrenheit and an acidification event in the oceans."  And that's not good.  Furthermore, according to Lee R. Kump, a professor of geosciences at Penn State:

"Rather than the 20,000 years of the PETM which is long enough for ecological systems to adapt, carbon is now being released into the atmosphere at a rate 10 times faster. It is possible that this is faster than ecosystems can adapt."

For those who want to read the original journal article, the full citation is:

Ying Cui, Lee R. Kump, Andy J. Ridgwell, Adam J. Charles, Christopher K. Junium, Aaron F. Diefendorf, Katherine H. Freeman, Nathan M. Urban, Ian C. Harding. Slow release of fossil carbon during the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum. Nature Geoscience, 2011; DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1179

Russia, The Arctic, and the New Oil Rush - Global Warming Opens Up New Cold War

It seems thar's oil in that there ice. And also gas. And Russia wants it.

News reports indicate that Russia is working hard to stake a claim in the Arctic seabed. One of its most famous polar scientists, Artur Chilingarov, noted in a recent news conference "the Arctic has a special geopolitical importance for Russia." It also, apparently, may contain as much as 25 percent of the world's undiscovered oil and gas. So Russia is planning to build a new Arctic research ship to add to its existing icebreaker fleet and allow it to better exploit these energy resources. Already, in 2007, they conducted an expedition in which Russian mini-submarines "planted the Russian flag" (actually, a capsule containing the Russian flag) on the Arctic seabed. In time, according to Chilingarov, the goal for the Arctic is "expanding the Russian presence there, intensifying research and rebuilding a network of polar stations."

But the real controversy is Russia's plan to send about 50 polar scientists to Spitsbergen, an island to which Norway claims exclusive rights. It seems Russia, the United States, Canada and other northern countries are all in a race to assert jurisdiction over the Arctic, whose oil, gas and minerals until recently have been considered too difficult to recover. However, there is growing evidence that global warming is shrinking polar ice, opening up new shipping lanes and thus new resource development possibilities.

In 2001, Russia submitted a claim to the United Nations that an underwater mountain range crossing the polar region is part of Russia's continental shelf. The UN rejected that claim for lack of evidence. But Russia seems intent on establishing both a scientific and military presence in the Arctic as the major powers all seek to lay claim to its newly lucrative energy reserves.

"We aren't going to wage a new Cold War in the Arctic," Chilingarov said, though he also added that "Russia will look to protect its interests."