Answers to Questions - 2016 Warmest Year on Record

NASA and NOAA issued a joint press release on January 18, 2017 confirming what climate watchers had expected - 2016 was the warmest year on record globally. "Earth’s 2016 surface temperatures were the warmest since modern recordkeeping began in 1880," said the press release. The announcement was carried by most major news outlets, including a full front page article in the New York Times. Questions arise as soon as any such announcement is made, so this post is focused on answering those questions.

1) Is it really the warmest year on record? Yes. The two reporting agencies - NASA and NOAA - analyzed their data sets independently and reached the same conclusion. Other worldwide climate research agencies have all reported (or will soon report) the same conclusion - 2016 was the warmest year on record, i.e., since the late 19th century.

2) When was the last record-setting year? 2015, which surpassed the previous record-setter 2014. That means 2016 is the third straight year breaking the record for warmest year. That is highly unusual, if not unprecedented. In fact:

"Results from the world’s top monitoring agencies vary slightly, but NASA, NOAA, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the U.K.’s Met Office all agree: 2016 was unprecedented. The heat was experienced differently around the world, but most regions were unusually warm to downright scorching for much of the year."

3) But climate is a trend, not a single year. Does breaking the record matter? Yes. As NASA/NOAA note: "The 2016 temperatures continue a long-term warming trend." NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) further notes:

“2016 is remarkably the third record year in a row in this series,” said GISS Director Gavin Schmidt. “We don’t expect record years every year, but the ongoing long-term warming trend is clear.”

4) Did it break the record by a lot? Yes. NASA notes:

"The planet’s average surface temperature has risen about 2.0 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere."

Scientists widely agree an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius is highly significant and a major global problem. We're almost there already, and because of the levels of CO2 already emitted, we are virtually guaranteed to pass that threshold much sooner than originally expected.

5) We had a strong El Nino during part of 2016. Was this the reason for the record? No. While warming in the early part of 2016 was enhanced by the strong El Nino, the El Nino had largely dissipated mid-year. Gavin Schmidt, director of GISS, notes that 2016 would have broken the record even without the El Nino.

"El Niño was a factor this year, but both 2015 & 2016 would have been records even without it. Estimate of effect 0.05°C & 0.12°C."

6) Okay, three straight years is unusual. Will 2017 set a record for the fourth year in a row? We won't know until later how this year will trend, but it seems unlikely it will set yet another new record. While each year is subject to short-term variation, it is the long-term trends that matter. The long-term trend clearly shows we are warming the climate system.

7) What does it mean if we don't set a new record? This was discussed earlier here.

8) The climate is getting warmer. So what? Virtually all climate scientists agree that the continuing warming trend is highly significant. We are already seeing its effects: melting of the Arctic sea ice, Greenland land ice, and glaciers; sea level rise; ocean acidification; changes in migratory patterns; economic dynamics; national security; human habitats; human and ecological health; and every aspect of human existence.

The trend is clear. The cause is clear. The need for action is clear.

Climate Communication - What Happens When We Don't Set a New Heat Record?

Both NASA and NOAA report that the first six months of 2016 have been the warmest half-year on record. This year, 2016, has a 99% chance of setting a new record for the hottest year ever recorded in global surface temperatures. It would surpass the previous record year, 2015, which surpassed the previous record year, 2014, thus making 2016 the third straight year setting a new heat record. But what happens when we don't set a new record?

This fact is inevitable. While increasing CO2 is causing a long-term trend in increasing temperatures, there is short-term variability that can make any year either a bit higher or lower. Check out the basics in this short video. [See also here for a good explanation of trend vs variation]

So even non-record-setting years are still getting warmer, just not record-setting warm. You can see this clearly in a NASA graphic of January-June temperature trends taken from the first link above: 2016 blows away the old records and even less warm years are well above the older years.

CO2 will continue to push temperatures upward over the long term. But short-term phenomena like El Nino and La Nina (and others) are what defines the level for any given year. For the earlier part of the 21st century we saw very little in the way of El Nino events after the massive 1998 El Nino that spiked temperatures higher. That is why deniers always pick 1998 as the start date for any dishonest claim of a "pause" in warming. There never was any "pause" or "hiatus," just short-term variation caused by lack of El Ninos and a series of La Ninas (the latter of which tends to dampen warming just as the former tends to enhance it). We've had a very large El Nino the last year or so, which is partially why the rising temperatures have broken the records by such a great amount (keeping in mind that the 2014 record was set without any help from El Nino).

That El Nino is dissipated and scientists anticipate a La Nina starting up this fall, so while 2016 is still likely to set a new record for the third year in a row, conditions appear to be setting up for 2017 not to set a new record. If it comes up less warm than 2016 we'll see all the climate deniers screaming "See, it's getting cooler," despite the fact that "less hot" does not equate to "cooler." [Think of your stove: the high setting is very hot, but the medium setting is not "cool."]

Just as it is inevitable that we'll have a year that is not as hot as this year (though the following years will continue the upward trend), it's inevitable that the climate denial lobbying industry will misrepresent the less hot year as "cooler." We've seen this with the non-"pause" and we've seen it with the "Arctic sea ice has recovered" every time the short-term variation gives a year where ice decreases slightly less than the previous year. These lobbyists know what they are saying is dishonestly misrepresenting the science, but they do it anyway. That is their job as fossil fuel lobbyists.

So scientists and science communicators need to be prepared to deal with the inevitable deceit of climate deniers when a year, possibly 2017, shows less warming than the previous record years.

An Open Letter to the 2016 Presidential Hopefuls re: Climate Change

Dear 2016 Presidential Hopefuls:

Climate change will be a significant issue during the 2016 election cycle. It could even be the defining one. I know some of you would rather avoid the topic, but, well, you can't. Part of being President is taking responsibility for the future of America, and that means dealing with man-made climate change, whether you like it not. If you don't want the responsibility, don't run.

The actions the next President takes on man-made climate change are critical. Given that the ramifications of non-action are significant impacts across the entire gamut of executive responsibilities, the choices made may very well be the most important decisions defining our nation's future.

Man-made climate change impacts our health and the environment, which should be enough in themselves to warrant action. But since some of you act like those things aren't important, keep in mind that man-made climate change has dramatic impacts on our economy, our national security, and on immigration policy. We've already seen impacts on our climate, on social norms, and on ecological and economic patterns. Those will continue to get worse.

So let's start with the basics:

The climate system is warming, and

human activity is the dominant cause of that warming, and

          impacts are serious and already occurring.

These are unequivocal facts. Denial is not an option. Some of you think that playing politics with our future is just another parlor game of no importance. But guess what; being President means you have to deal with the hand you're given. And that means dealing with man-made climate change. Oklahoma's drought doesn't go away because an 80-year-old Senator tells his 20-something-year-old aid to run outside and bag a snowball in the middle of winter. Denial is a slap in the face to your constituents, and when you're President, all 320 million Americans are your constituents.

Luckily, some people have been taking responsibility and providing leadership. The current administration has been taking steps despite Congressional inaction. We've already seen carbon emission reductions and shifting toward renewable energy sources. In 2014 the President signed a landmark agreement with China to move both our countries forward. Other actions between the US and India and with Europe continue the trend in a year that could end with a significant global climate change commitment in Paris. That Paris agreement is going to put pressure on all the US presidential candidates to explain how they will address man-made climate change.

Most options for dealing with climate change involve reducing carbon emissions, both here at home and, through our leadership, in the rest of the world. There are many ways that this can be accomplished, so rather than irresponsibly and dishonestly deny the science, feel free to propose your preferred option.

But be honest about it. The last time there was an effort to reduce carbon emissions, the two parties offered up their preferences. The Democratic party generally favored a carbon tax option, while the Republican party favored a cap-and-trade option. John McCain, George W. Bush and other Republicans actively lobbied for cap-and-trade and managed to convince the Democratic party to support it. But guess what; as soon as everyone was behind cap-and-trade the Republicans started attacking it. Yes, they attacked their own proposal. Touted as a "market-based mechanism" (which it is), suddenly it became a "socialist agenda" as soon as Democrats agreed to it.

Sorry, but that's just not honest.

As a 2016 presidential hopeful, it is incumbent upon all of you to be honest with your proposals. And since the president is president for all of the country, not just the party he or she belongs to, this means having the honesty and leadership capacity to keep your own party honest. That isn't always possible, as the recent Congresses have aptly demonstrated, but your obligation will be to the entire American people, not to one party.

Being president isn't an easy job (as George W. Bush will remind you), but it is a critical one. If you can't handle the responsibility, don't run for the position.

But hey, there is plenty of time between now and election day, so you have the opportunity to be a leader. That starts with taking responsibility for your actions and the actions of your supporters. And it means being honest. Some of you haven't started off too well in that regard.

We'll be watching.

Signed,

The Voters