Ever noticed how in "discussions" on the internet with climate deniers, especially the ideologically motivated amateur ones, you invariably start seeing references to "alarmists?" Not surprised anymore to seeing terms like "algorian" [in honor of Al Gore] or "sheeple" or "communist" or "climate Nazi?" Ever wondered why such abusive name-calling has become so prevalent on the internet when discussing man-made climate change? It's actually an intentionally used tactic by climate deniers.
Think of this factual statement:
"Virtually every climate scientist agrees that the sum total of all of the peer-reviewed science over the last century demonstrate unequivocally that the planet is warming and human activity, primarily our burning of fossil fuels, is the dominant cause."
Supported by millions of empirical data points and well-known physics, the statement is easily demonstrated to be factually accurate. It's unequivocal - the planet is warming and human activity is the dominant cause.
This presents a problem for climate deniers. It's hard to get mileage by denying what "virtually all climate scientists say..." So, deniers replace "climate scientists" with "alarmists" and, Voila!, problem solved. We're no longer talking about science, we're talking about activists, extremists," political followers of Al Gore, and the more emphatically crazy, "warmists," "communist commissars," "libtard warmers," "warmageddonists," and all sorts of other mean and nasty names intended to deflect from the fact that virtually all scientists agree humans are warming the planet.
Name calling is a crutch. Designed to keep the illusion of movement when climate deniers know they don't have a leg to stand on. But it's also a tactic; designed as a means of harassing scientists and science followers. It's a form of violence. A way to inflict aggression on to people deniers have chosen to despise because the deniers don't want to take responsibility for the ramifications of continued warming.
So abusive name calling is intentional. You'll see demeaning names like those above, as well as calling people such blatantly offensive epithets such as "global warming Nazis," the "Branch-Carbonian Cult of Climate Thermageddon," "useful idiots," and various abusive expletives. Attacks are directed at scientists like Michael Mann, scientific communicators like John Cook at Skeptical Science (who has been called "John Crook" by amateur deniers), and every day people that comment on various blogs and social sites like Facebook.
When deniers use name calling to distract from having to admit that "alarmist" actually means "virtually every climate scientist in the world and well-known physics," they are 1) being dishonest, and 2)
making it obvious that they understand, or at least sense, that they are
intentionally being deceitful.
The harassment of climate scientists and others has a long history in the climate denial industry. Future posts will look closer at this aspect, as well as at what scientists and science followers alike can do to combat harassment by those who deny the science of man-made climate change.
One of the recurring tactics used by climate deniers, especially the amateur ones, is to dismiss with prejudice any scientific organization that reports the state-of-the-science with respect to man-made climate change. The most egregiously - and falsely - attacked organization is the IPCC.
The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (which, thankfully, we all know as the IPCC), is written off as a political organization because, well, because it says "intergovernmental" right there in the title, doesn't it? So obviously it just makes stuff up to push an agenda, right?
Wrong.
Since there is so much misinformation out there about what exactly the IPCC does it seems
appropriate to give a little background. The
IPCC was "established [in 1988] by the United Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world
with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its
potential environmental and socio-economic consequences." By definition it is
both a scientific body and an intergovermental body. As a scientific
body it "reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and
socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of
climate change. " It is an intergovernmental body in that it is
"open to all member countries of UN and WMO," and
representatives from up to around 130 countries participate in the plenary
sessions where decisions about adoption of the technical reports are
done. Note that the governmental representatives only show up to adopt the technical reports; the technical reports themselves are written by
scientists expert in the fields pertinent to the particular part of the report
being written.
The
IPCC didn't come into existence on a whim or from some political motive.
It was established because there was already a vast amount of empirical evidence
suggesting that human activity was causing a dramatic warming of the
planet. At the time, this information was spread out in thousands of independent
papers and reports all over the world, as well as observations such as
retreating glaciers, increasing temperature readings, ice cap extent and volume
measurements, and new data from satellites. It was becoming obvious that something was happening to our climatic system, but with the information scattered all over the place it was hard to tell what was causing it. In short, the IPCC was
formed to bring all the data from all these sources together, and summarize it
into something that could be understood by policymakers charged with making decisions.
While climate denialists like to make believe the IPCC is some sort of political behemoth created to push some agenda, this characterization couldn't be further from the truth. The IPCC staff are actually very few in
number (about 10 people). The work of summarizing the state-of-the-science is done by
thousands of scientists who volunteer their time to compile, review, and assess the tens
of thousands of peer reviewed and related publications and studies. These
scientists generally are academics at universities or at scientific agencies such
as NASA and NOAA in the US, and their counterparts in countries all over the world. It takes several years to summarize the data for each report.
So contrary to the grand conspiracists that dominate climate denialism, the
IPCC doesn't conduct any new research itself nor dictate what is to be written, it is merely an administrative vehicle to coordinate the
compiling and evaluating being done by scientists across the globe. These scientists work in diverse teams to synthesize the vast amounts of available information
and produce technical reports for each of the three working groups.
Only after the technical reports are completed does the IPCC convene representatives
from each group and each country to agree on a fourth volume called the Synthesis Report, which as the name implies,
summarizes the three technical reports in a way that government officials and
the public can understand.
Since
its inception in 1988 the IPCC has published five sets of Assessment documents, in 1990, 1995, 2001,
2007, and 2013/2014. Each succeeding report incorporates all the new research since the
last report (plus a reevaluation of the previous studies), and the more we know
and understand the more certain we become about the fact that the planet is
warming and the likelihood that we are causing it. The most recent,
Assessment Report 5 (AR5), concluded that "the warming of the climate system is unequivocal," [p.4] and that "it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century." [p.17] Using the IPCC's terminology, "extremely likely" means
between 95% and 100% certainty, and "unequivocal" means
clear and unambiguous (i.e., absolutely certain). In other words, climate change is happening and it's because of human activity.
Next up is the process of developing the
Synthesis Report, and IPCC rules require 100% consensus among the representatives at the
plenary session. This is done long after the three technical reports are
completed by the scientists and the synthesis report must obviously conform to the science presented. Since some participating governments rely so heavily on income from the fossil fuels that are
the primary contributor to global warming, these members tend to work hard to water down the conclusions in the synthesis report as much possible. Thus, the "100% consensus"
process tends to result in estimates that are less dire (NOT more dire) than the science actually supports. So the problem is very likely much worse than the IPCC Synthesis
Report suggests.
As anyone at this point should be able to see, the IPCC itself is merely an administrative vehicle to coordinate the work of thousands of scientist contributors, expert reviewers, and myriad commenters as they pull together all of the scientific studies and synthesize the conclusions derived from those studies. Since these scientists come from a wide range of countries, backgrounds, and views (including contrarian and climate denier views), suggestions that there is a grand conspiracy to further some single agenda is, to put it nicely, bonkers.
The professional denialist lobby and their spokespeople, of course, know that the science is unequivocal. But they are paid to further the interests of their benefactors and intentionally choose to ignore the science they find inconvenient, and routinely seed the blogosphere with misrepresentations and outright falsehoods so that amateur denialists have fodder to plagiarize. The professional lobby knows that the ideologically motivated amateurs won't really understand what they repeat, nor be particularly skeptical of the sources despite delusionally referring to themselves as skeptics. It's more than a little cynical on their part, for sure, but that's what they are paid to do and they do it well. So they dishonestly demean the IPCC and chuckle at the ideologues who further their goals.
The amateurs? We'll discuss more about their traits and tactics as we continue the series. One ubiquitous trait of amateur denialists is contradiction (often in the same sentence). More on that soon.
Whether we think about it or not, we live in a scientific world. But with so much information out there it's sometimes difficult to separate the actual science from the pseudoscience, or worse, the crock. Especially when there are people out there who intentionally mislead the public on such important science issues as man-made climate change.
The science is clear - human activity is causing our climate system to warm. The support for this is voluminous and unequivocal. But, you say, "I saw on a blog that said it was all a hoax. How do I know who to believe?"
A reasonable question, and one easy to address. Take, for example, the following video by Michael Shermer, an actual skeptic. In something he calls the "Baloney Detection Kit" he lays out ten questions everyone should ask themselves as they evaluate various claims. This interesting and informative video can help us understand the world
of climate denialists, so watch it and then check out the text below.
As
the video shows, there are 10 questions to ask ourselves when someone offers a
new theory or opinion. Let's apply these to man-made climate change, also commonly called global warming.
1)
How reliable is the source of the data?
The
scientific consensus: Sources are tens of thousands of studies published in the peer-reviewed literature and conducted
by thousands of researchers over more than three decades of investigation by
scientists at every kind of scientific organization (government, independent,
skeptic, NGO, University, industry, etc.) all over the world.
The
denialists:
Sources are mostly non-science bloggers, Op-Eds in business newspapers, and a handful of skeptic scientists associated with free market and fossil fuel lobbying groups.
2)
Does the source make similar claims?
The
scientific consensus:
Science is always open to new ideas. That is how science works.
All new ideas undergo the same tests of evidence and scrutiny.
The
denialists:
The phrase used in the video, "heretic for the sake of heresy," comes to mind. Most denialists will argue for the sake of arguing, even if contradicting themselves.
3)
Have the claims been verified?
The
scientific consensus:
All claims must meet the test of scrutiny - peer review, replication, many
other experiments looking at the issue from many different angles. Claims of man-made climate change have been verified through multiple lines of evidence.
The
denialists:
Any single "data" point is touted as the truth that upsets the
established understanding, even long after the "data" has been shown
to be misunderstood, misrepresented, or an outright fabrication.
4)
Does this fit with the way the world works?
The
scientific consensus:
The idea that CO2 could have the effect that was discovered is entirely logical
and consistent with how the world works. It has been demonstrated through experiment and empirical evidence.
The
denialists:
Some of the claims are so bizarre and so divorced from the way the world works
that the logic is hard to follow, e.g., the claims that the well known greenhouse effect
is somehow false despite nearly 200 years of evidence.
5)
Has anyone tried to disprove the claim?
The
scientific consensus:
Scientists constantly are looking at alternative explanations. The author
and/or every other scientist in the field will try to test whether other
explanations would also explain the phenomena being observed.
The
denialists:
This is best summed up by a direct quote by one denialist: "I and all
of skeptic science has [sic] cherry picked the facts that disproves that man made C02
is the cause of global warming. We don't need any others."
6)
Where does the preponderance of the evidence point?
The
scientific consensus:
Tens of thousands of studies published in the peer-reviewed literature and
conducted by thousands of researchers over many decades of
investigation by scientists at every kind of scientific organization
(government, independent, skeptic, NGO, University, industry, etc.) all over
the world have led to the overwhelming conclusion that has become the
scientific consensus on climate change.
The
denialists:
Bloggers and skeptic scientists associated with free market lobbying groups who
suggest one study is enough to invalidate the preponderance of the evidence.
7)
Is the claimant playing by the rules of science?
The
scientific consensus:
Science is all about using the scientific method, assessing corraborative evidence,
testing, using logic, etc.
The
denialists:Tendency to ignore any data that do not support their predefined view, including all the
information presented that demonstrates their "data" are false.
8)
Is the claimant providing positive evidence?
The
scientific consensus:
Climate scientists have provided many decades of positive evidence in tens of thousands of peer-reviewed studies, corroborated
by observations of ice melting, glaciers receding, temperature changes, etc. The most recent IPCC assessment reports summarize this positive evidence in detail.
The
denialists:
Most of the "evidence" provided is unsupported by the data, usually unverifiable, and contradictory. Often what is presented as evidence is not actually evidence but rather a political or economic viewpoint, e.g., global warming is a hoax
because cap-and-trade will cost companies money
9)
Does the new theory account for as many phenomena as the old theory?
The
scientific consensus:
As noted, climate scientists have compiled many decades of evidence
that account for the changes we have been observing.
The
denialists:
Mostly focus on anomalies and seem to think that these few
uncertainties explain everything, when in fact they simply ignore anything that
seems not to fit their predetermined ideas.
10)
Are personal beliefs driving the claims?
The
scientific consensus:
As the video notes, scientists are people too. Which is why we have peer-review
and the scrutiny of other scientists who may view the issue from a different
perspective. The data tell us which conclusions are supported.
The
denialists:
Mostly begin with a distaste for one of the policy remedies and then decide to
"fight the science" as a lobbying tool to avoid regulation. They then cherry pick to find any information that they think supports their
crusade to avoid regulation (by denying the science). This helps explain why the most cited "skeptic" scientists are all
associated with free market lobbying groups, and why we routinely hear denialists say things
like "climate change is wrong because cap-and-trade is just a tax on
business."
Feel free to go back and view Shermer's "Baloney Detection Kit" again. These ten questions should be asked by every citizen evaluating for themselves the claims made by scientists and denialists. In fact, that last line is a good indicator of the veracity of the claims - virtually all climate scientists (along with the realities of physics) concur that the preponderance of the evidence overwhelmingly support the conclusion that human activity is warming the planet. Those who claim man-made climate change is a hoax? Mostly they are non-scientists and free market/fossil fuel-supported spokespeople.
It seems every scientist has been through it a million
times. We see some climate science denier saying something that is so incredibly
divorced from fact that we can’t believe they would so blatantly show off their ignorance. So we explain, we correct, we
demonstrate their lack of understanding, and yet they continue.
Why? Do they
not notice their ignorance, their lack of logic, their devolution into pedantic
proselytizing? Are they so wrapped up in their belief systems that the very act of admitting actual facts would damage their self-worth? Or are they
just trolls, thriving on their self-delusional belief that they are smarter
than a fifth grader, not to mention every climate scientist in the world?
The answer, of course, is yes, all of the above, though not
necessarily all at the same time in the same person. Since denialist positions
are so often based on what they want to be true rather than what the
facts demonstrate to be true, they cannot give in. To do so would result in
such psychological discordance as to completely destroy their self-value.
However, the psyches of amateur denialists can be left for another
essay; this one is about professional denialists. Why do the paid lobbyists and
their designees continue to write Op-Eds and other opinion pieces in
non-science, non-peer reviewed venues even when they know they will be
immediately debunked?
The answer is actually self-evident
in the question. Denialists know that they have no valid scientific argument;
if they did they would present it in scientific journals, conferences, and debates.
Their goal isn’t to demonstrate science, it is to manipulate public opinion.
That is what lobbyists do, and they do it well. Their goal is to create the
illusion of debate, the façade of uncertainty. By continuing the “discussion,”
such as it is, in the media, they win. They know that a majority of the public won't understand the intricacies of the science, either by choice or by its complexity. Denialists know that the public will get an overall
sense of whether the science is settled or not, and that it is on this vague feeling the public will make judgments as to whether immediate action is needed. Perception is more
important than fact, and illusion of reality is much more powerful than actual
reality.
The goal of the game
As Sherlock Holmes might say, “the game is afoot.” To
professional climate deniers, the game is keeping the public confused and
giving cover to politicians wishing to avoid taking positions (see "I am not a scientist").
A good example of this is the recent back-and-forth over an
Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal by computational physicist, Steven Koonin. The
Op-Ed follows the usual pattern of being written by someone who is not a
climate scientist, repeating misperceptions and misinformation already
demonstrated to be false, and drawing conclusions not supported by the premises
presented, faulty as they usually are. It’s the same spiel offered dozens of
times before by Heartland Institute lawyer/lobbyist James Taylor and other
designated denialists of the month. In each case the opinion piece presents a
straw man to attack while ignoring all of the actual science and previous
rebuttals of the same faulty premises repeated ad nauseam. The denial lobby knows their arguments don’t hold
water, so why do they keep offering them?
Because they get rebutted. Immediately, repeatedly, and
demonstrably. Every single time.
To scientists this might seem crazy. We think that
constantly being shown to be wrong would be a persuasive reason not to say
the same false thing over and over. We expect people to learn from their mistakes, not simply repeat them as if doing so would somehow make falsehoods true. That’s because scientists are used to arguing the
science; professional denialist lobbyists, on the other hand, are arguing the
public opinion. What is critical in this game is not what the science tells us,
it’s the fact that to the public it appears as if there are two sides arguing
with each other. Two sides + arguing = not settled.
Lobbyists, aka, professional climate deniers, know this. The act of continued
“discussion” is conflated with disagreement. It doesn’t matter that one “side”
says something that has been repeatedly proven false while the other “side”
presents actual facts; all that matters to the public is the appearance of
disagreement. Some of the public will interpret this as meaning the science
isn’t settled, others will use it as convenient reinforcement for an
ideologically motivated position. In both cases, reality isn’t the driver – the
manufactured doubt is the driver.
That is the game being played by the denialist industry, one that they will always win. Scientific-reality-be-damned.
So should scientists take the time to rebut opinion pieces in politically motivated media outlets? Alas, the answer isn't a simple yes or no. We'll explore options in future posts, but scientists should consider whether their reply dowses a few few smoldering embers noticed only by foxholed fanatics, or fuels a wider conflagration that, in the end, further confuses the public. The latter, of course, is exactly what the professional denialists want.
