Answers to Questions - 2016 Warmest Year on Record

NASA and NOAA issued a joint press release on January 18, 2017 confirming what climate watchers had expected - 2016 was the warmest year on record globally. "Earth’s 2016 surface temperatures were the warmest since modern recordkeeping began in 1880," said the press release. The announcement was carried by most major news outlets, including a full front page article in the New York Times. Questions arise as soon as any such announcement is made, so this post is focused on answering those questions.

1) Is it really the warmest year on record? Yes. The two reporting agencies - NASA and NOAA - analyzed their data sets independently and reached the same conclusion. Other worldwide climate research agencies have all reported (or will soon report) the same conclusion - 2016 was the warmest year on record, i.e., since the late 19th century.

2) When was the last record-setting year? 2015, which surpassed the previous record-setter 2014. That means 2016 is the third straight year breaking the record for warmest year. That is highly unusual, if not unprecedented. In fact:

"Results from the world’s top monitoring agencies vary slightly, but NASA, NOAA, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the U.K.’s Met Office all agree: 2016 was unprecedented. The heat was experienced differently around the world, but most regions were unusually warm to downright scorching for much of the year."

3) But climate is a trend, not a single year. Does breaking the record matter? Yes. As NASA/NOAA note: "The 2016 temperatures continue a long-term warming trend." NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) further notes:

“2016 is remarkably the third record year in a row in this series,” said GISS Director Gavin Schmidt. “We don’t expect record years every year, but the ongoing long-term warming trend is clear.”

4) Did it break the record by a lot? Yes. NASA notes:

"The planet’s average surface temperature has risen about 2.0 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere."

Scientists widely agree an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius is highly significant and a major global problem. We're almost there already, and because of the levels of CO2 already emitted, we are virtually guaranteed to pass that threshold much sooner than originally expected.

5) We had a strong El Nino during part of 2016. Was this the reason for the record? No. While warming in the early part of 2016 was enhanced by the strong El Nino, the El Nino had largely dissipated mid-year. Gavin Schmidt, director of GISS, notes that 2016 would have broken the record even without the El Nino.

"El Niño was a factor this year, but both 2015 & 2016 would have been records even without it. Estimate of effect 0.05°C & 0.12°C."

6) Okay, three straight years is unusual. Will 2017 set a record for the fourth year in a row? We won't know until later how this year will trend, but it seems unlikely it will set yet another new record. While each year is subject to short-term variation, it is the long-term trends that matter. The long-term trend clearly shows we are warming the climate system.

7) What does it mean if we don't set a new record? This was discussed earlier here.

8) The climate is getting warmer. So what? Virtually all climate scientists agree that the continuing warming trend is highly significant. We are already seeing its effects: melting of the Arctic sea ice, Greenland land ice, and glaciers; sea level rise; ocean acidification; changes in migratory patterns; economic dynamics; national security; human habitats; human and ecological health; and every aspect of human existence.

The trend is clear. The cause is clear. The need for action is clear.

2014 the Hottest Year on Record Globally - Continuing a Trend

It should come as no surprise that 2014 is now officially the hottest year globally since records began in 1891. This news comes from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). It continues the trend of warmer years since human activity started driving climate.

JMA is only the first in line to make their announcement. NASA, NOAA, and the Climatic Research Center in the UK are expected to confirm that 2014 was the hottest year on record. Each of these scientific research organizations tasked with studying climate uses a slightly different data set, so if all four reach the same conclusion it is safe to say the conclusion is definitive. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations complement to the national agencies, had already announced in December that it expected 2014 to be the hottest year ever.

According to the JMA, 2014 "was +0.27°C above the 1981-2010 average (+0.63°C above the 20th century average), and was the warmest since 1891. On a longer time scale, global average surface temperatures have risen at a rate of about 0.70°C per century."

While temperatures can vary regionally and the global values are the metric used, the UK Met Office also noted that 2014 was the hottest year ever in the UK. Here the increase was even more pronounced, with the average temperature in their data set at "9.9C, some 1.1C above the long term average, and making it warmer than the previous record year of 2006." Similar heat records were seen in Europe, Siberia, Australia, and California.

With 2014 setting a new record, it joins joins the previous 10 hottest years, all of which have occurred since climate deniers claimed "the planet stopped warming." Needless to say, that falsehood is shown to be even more ridiculous, and as noted by the IPCC, "warming of the climate system is unequivocal."

At this point it's important to put 2014 in context. Global average temperatures do fluctuate from year to year because of short-term phenomena like El Nino, La Nina, and various "oscillations" (circulatory systems that impact weather and short-term climatic conditions). What is more critical than 2014 setting a new heat record is that it continues a trend we've been experiencing for the last few decades. Each of the last three decades has been warmer than the decade before. It's undeniable - the climate is warming.


And it's warming despite the fact that short-term phenomena should be slowing the warming. The last really big El Nino year, which tends to help warming, was 1998. Since then we've had fewer El Nino's and more La Nina's. La Nina's tend to temporarily depress the warming caused by CO2. We've also seen an increase in aerosol emissions from the growing middle class populations in China and India. On top of that has been a rather tepid solar activity. All of these would be expected to tamp down warming.

And still is warms.

Unlike 1998, which was fed by the strongest El Nino on record, 2014 had almost no El Nino at all. But that seems to be changing - the long-awaited El Nino finally seems to be starting, which the record set in 2014 may fall in 2015.

And that may just be the beginning.