The Hot Climate Trend Continues in April and the Arctic is Melting

2014 set a record for the hottest year on record. 2015 beat that to become the new hottest year. And 2016 is well on its way to becoming the third year straight setting a new record for hottest year in global climate.

So much for the non-"pause."

NOAA released its April 2016 data this week and reported that April is the 12th straight month of heat records. It wasn't just the hottest April ever recorded, it was the biggest heat gain for April since global records began in 1880. The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces was 0.10 degress C (1.98 degrees F) above the 20th century average. That's huge.

In the graphic above (larger here), all the pink and red are warmer than normal, with the darker reds showing the greatest warming. The blues and whites are areas where it was cooler in April. Not surprisingly, climate denial lobbyists like to talk about the small areas of blue and ignore the rest of the red planet.

This isn't just warming, it's staggeringly increased warming. And this is even though 2015 already showed a huge jump from the normal range of warming. In short, it's getting hot. Really hot.

NASA released its data a few days prior to NOAA and it also shows a record April and continuation of a long trend of record heating. There really is no way to deny the heating that has been taking place. Nor the cause, which is primarily human combustion of fossil fuels that is putting huge amounts of excess CO2 into the atmosphere and oceans.

The Arctic is melting

All of this heat is having a horrific effect on sea ice extent in the Arctic. We've seen a continuing trend towards reduced ice extent during the summer in the Arctic. This year it's been even worse. As noted many times, Arctic sea ice grows in the winter and melts in the summer (though not completely). This winter had the worst sea ice extent growth on record. Not only is that bad but it starts off the melt season with a lot less ice than normal, which is reflected in the current sea ice extent as of mid-May that is well below this time during the record season of 2012. (Larger here)

The annual minimum won't be until September and conditions could change, but with such a bad start it's entirely possible we could hit a record low ice amount this summer.

Alaska is baking

Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse, it does. At 320 miles above the Arctic Circle, Barrow, Alaska is the last place you would expect to lose snow cover. It's already melting. Alaska has experienced record heat and May 13th set the earliest snowmelt date ever recorded. It smashed the previous record.

The early melting follows a record-setting winter that saw temperatures average more than 11 degrees above normal...shattering the previous record set in 2015.

Worse, "an ominous series of openings, known as leads, extending deep into the Arctic" have opened up as sea ice is already showing signs of massive breakup. It's not pretty.

All of this doesn't bode well for the summer. This year (2016) is currently on track to break the global heat record set in 2015 (which broke the previous record of 2014), and we're on pace to have the worse Arctic melt year on record to boot.

While climate denier lobbyists desperately search for a "pause" in warming, the climate just keeps on getting hotter.

NOAA Issues Draft Scientific Integrity Policy for Public Comment

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a draft scientific integrity policy for public comment.  It joins a similar release by the Department of the Interior in February as a response to President Obama's executive order requiring federal agencies to provide guidance on how they will ensure scientific integrity. NOAA would like interested parties to provide feedback by August 20, 2011.

The policy, which can be read in full here, establishes Codes of Conduct and Ethics and identifies eight "Principles of Scientific Integrity."  They include such things as how NOAA employees conduct, publish, and communicate research and results, and the benefits and limitations of NOAA scientists' participation in professional organizations, as well as rules for receiving awards. The primary goals are to ensure transparency, maintain the highest of levels of scientific integrity, and assist in the accurate communication of scientific findings to the public and policy-makers. 

To support this policy, among other things, NOAA will facilitate the free flow of scientific information online and in other formats, document the scientific findings considered in decision-making, and ensure selection of scientific staff "based on a candidate's integrity, knowledge, credentials, and experience relevant to the responsibility of the position." 

The new draft policy was welcomed by at least one scientific organization, the American Geophysical Union, which issued a press release.


The link for the NOAA scientific integrity policy, and instructions for providing feedback to the Agency, can be found here.

2010 - Warmest Meteorological Year, Tied for Warmest Calendar Year

The warming of the planet has been on a bit of a tear lately, with most of the hottest mean global annual temperatures occurring in the last 10-15 years.  Last month the National Air and Space Administration (NASA), one of the major climate science research agencies in the world, announced that the 2010 Meteorological Year (which runs from Dec. 2009 to Nov. 2010) was the warmest in NASA's 130-year historical record.  This week another climate research agency, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), reported that the 2010 calendar year (Jan. 1 through Dec 31) was tied with 2005 as the warmest in the record.

The NASA-reported Meteorological Year data show ocean and land average global temperature as 14.65˚C, which is 0.65˚C warmer than the average global temperature of the reference period between 1951 and 1980.  NOAA's data for the calendar year show that the average temperature in 2010 was 58.12˚F, the same as in 2005, both of which are 1.12˚F above the 20th-century average of 57˚C.

Overall, it was the 34th straight year that the average global temperatures were above the baseline average.  And this year did so despite the presence of a La Nina in the eastern Pacific, a phenomenon that generally dampens the warming effects somewhat.  The January to December 2010 (calendar) year temperature anomalies can be seen in the graphic below (source: NOAA National Climatic Data Center).

The bottom line is that the planet continues to warm dramatically.  According to NCDC, "the decadal global land and ocean average temperature anomaly for 2001–2010 was the warmest decade on record for the globe, with a surface global temperature of 0.56°C (1.01°F) above the 20^th century average. This surpassed the previous decadal record (1991–2000) value of 0.36°C (0.65°F)."

For more of the NOAA data, check out the National Climate Data Center web site.

New NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco Says Science is Her Top Priority

Dr. Jane Lubchenco took over the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on March 22, 2009. A day later she did a joint interview with writers from two of the most prestigious science news journals - Science and Nature. When asked what her top priorities were as she took over the agency, she responded "Clearly, science is a priority for me."

Expanding on that idea, Dr. Lubchenco said:

It's my belief that a resilient society and economy depend on informed decisions regarding environmental challenges and resource-management issues. The role of science is to provide the knowledge to do that informing. Those decisions might be made by individuals or governments or by companies; I believe those decisions will be better if they are informed by science. I use "informed" judiciously because I don't think the science should dictate any particular outcome. Decisions are going to take into account a number of different things — values, politics, economics — but science should be at the table in a way that is understandable and relevant and credible and salient. NOAA, as an applied-science agency, has the responsibility to develop and communicate and use science to make policy and management decisions, but also to inform policy and management decisions that are made by others.

When asked whether there was "a big problem in terms of scientists being muzzled in the last administration," she said that it's probably hard to know for sure, but that "as we move forward science will be respected; it will not be muzzled. It will not be distorted. And scientists will be free to share their scientific findings whether they fit any preconceived policy or not." She also indicated that she and John Holdren, the new presidential science adviser and director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy, would be reviewing all policies and practices to ensure scientific integrity.

Lubchenco also said that one thing she would like to do is "establish a National Climate Service in partnership with other agencies."

The full interview can be read in Nature magazine.